DNV data for 2025, published in January 2026
New methanol ship orders reached 61 in 2025, against a 2024 comparison of 149. Both figures come from the same annual update, and we do not mix in earlier published numbers.
WHY METHANOL · WHY NOW
Heavy-Duty Transport Is Re-Costing Its Energy Choice
Policy, standards and market cycles are moving at the same time. We set out, in verifiable terms, where methanol fits heavy-duty transport — and where its limits are.
The policy and standards window
Each entry below has been verified and carries its document name and year.
- 2019
Guiding Opinions on Piloting Methanol Vehicle Applications in Selected Regions
Eight ministries including the MIIT
Regions with the right conditions may advance methanol vehicle applications.
- 2026
Hydrogen integrated application pilot (green ammonia-methanol included)
Three ministries including the MIIT
Green ammonia-methanol and stable downstream offtake are now priorities.
- 2026
GB/T 47585—2026, Application specifications for methanol fuel in vehicles
National standard (in force 1 September 2026)
Application management for vehicle methanol fuel has a new standards reference.
Boundary note: policy support does not mean every region already has the refuelling and approval conditions in place. For any given project, refuelling, approval and operating conditions still rest with the competent authority where the project is located.
Route comparison
Only a full-cost comparison on the same route and duty cycle is meaningful. The table compares route characteristics; methanol's advantages cluster around heavy loads, fixed routes, low temperatures and fast refuelling.
| Dimension | Methanol | Diesel | Battery-electric | Hydrogen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fuel cost | Roughly 32%–52% below diesel (public industry data) | Mature baseline, moves with oil prices | Low electricity cost, sensitive to tariffs and charging windows | Higher fuel cost, reliant on subsidies or cheap hydrogen |
| Refuelling time | Close to liquid fuel, minutes | Minutes — the baseline | Fast charging takes tens of minutes; longer for heavy loads | Refuelling is quick, but stations are scarce |
| Payload and range | Long range with little payload penalty — suited to heavy loads | Mature baseline | Battery weight cuts payload; long distances are constrained | Good range, but hydrogen storage adds weight and cost |
| Cold-weather performance | Stable in low temperatures | Needs winter-grade fuel and preheating | Range drops noticeably in the cold | Performs well in low temperatures |
| Infrastructure barrier | Conversion costs about RMB 50,000–100,000 per station; existing filling stations can be converted (public industry data) | Mature network | Needs high-power grid and charging investment | High station capex with many approval steps |
| Best-fit scenarios | Heavy loads, fixed routes, mining and port areas, cold regions | The mature baseline across the board | Urban delivery, short runs, fixed short-haul | Specific policy pilot zones and demonstration routes |
Public industry data — confirm against measurements on the target route. Battery-electric leads in urban delivery and short runs, hydrogen leads in specific policy zones, and diesel remains the most mature baseline; this table does not rank any route across every dimension.
Why now
A view from the industry side: demand is real, and it moves with the market cycle.
Two separate markets
The conventional methanol market is mainly about price, quality, transport and fulfilment efficiency. The green methanol market also has to prove feedstock and energy source, carbon footprint, certification and genuine buyer willingness to pay a premium. Contracts, labelling and costs for the two should be managed separately.
A pullback in orders is a reminder: expand against real offtake contracts and alternative supply arrangements, rather than treating an industry trend as unconditional growth.
What it means for us
An industry window is not the same as any single company's success; where you enter matters more than market size.
Take the "downstream demand organiser" position
Build fleet purchasing and collections first, then bring upstream supply and financial institutions along. Without a production technology edge, large self-built capacity should not be the first use of funds.
Prioritise the links we can control
Storage and distribution, refuelling applications and fleet operations come first; upstream production comes later, and then only as a cautious minority stake once evidence supports it.
When green and digital come into the conversation
Green fuel and externally sold digital services are discussed only once certification, offtake and paying external clients are in place — never as a first-round selling point.
Want to see how this logic maps to capital structure?
The Investor Relations page sets out the evidence wall, validation-unit economics and the batch-release mechanism.